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The Northern Lights / Aurora Borealis By Lyndon Anderson |
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Northern Lights Forecasts How do you know if the northern lights are going to be out on a particular night? For years, I didn't have a clue, and I didn't live in the country where I could get up at night on occasion to look out the window and see if there was a display.
The above photograph was taken on March 18, 2002. Finally, in the late 1990s, I had access to the internet. My first searches came up with two sites – www.spacew.com and www.spaceweather.com – that I primarily refer to everyday. I also refer to other web sites as well that I found through later searches. Here are my favorite web sites. The front page of this web site tells you at first glance if there is a middle latitude watch or warning. There is also a short forecast on the front page. In addition, there is information on the solar wind, Bz (southward component) and density, numbers that you will quickly learn to pay attention to if you are "chasing" the aurora. You can also follow a link to a page that features estimated time of arrival predictions for the northern lights. Additional links take you to a listing of all recent sightings and a forum where people can post messages. Finally, the site has a feature where you can post photographs of the northern lights real time (especially if you take a photo of the northern lights with a digital camera and have quick access to a computer). If you are really serious about monitoring northern lights activity, one of the links provides information on forecasting software – “Space Weather Information Monitor" – that can be purchased through the web site. If there is potential for a major show, there will be a short news story on the front page of that web site. Also pay attention to the solar wind speed, the southward component (Bz) and the total density (Bt). These numbers are posted on the front page of the web site, and links are included that provide an explanation of the numbers, and that provide more data. The chances of seeing the northern lights increases if wind speeds increase to 500 kilometers per second or higher, the Bz is at a negative period for an hour or longer, and if the Bt is at 10 or above for an hour or longer. One of the best features of the site is that following displays, people often e-mail comments on the show and their favorite photographs, which are then posted in photo galleries. By clicking a lot of links starting at the front page, you can get to daily forecasts at www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/RSGA.html. This page features a forecast that is posted every late afternoon at 5:10 p.m. during daylight savings time, and at 4:10 during the remainder of the year.
The above photograph was taken on September 30, 2002. This site indicates if there is a geomagnetic storm and the strength of the show – minor, major, strong, severe or extreme. Usually, if any one of the warnings is posted, North Dakota is "far enough north" where the northern lights can be seen. The site also has predictions for the KP index. The levels range from 1-to-9, where 1 is the weakest show and 9 is the strongest show. In Bismarck, the best shows to see range from level 5-9. Sometimes you can see a show that is level 4. However, shows of levels 1-3 can typically only be seen at geomagnetic latitudes higher than at Bismarck. Read background information on the site to understand the data. http://kate.nic.ualberta.ca:8000/portal/rt_oval/index.html This site features a real time auroral oval from the Space Science Data Portal. To understand the oval, the site has more information. By just taking a glance at this, I can often tell if the northern lights are visible at my location. http://groups.yahoo.com/group/auroralobserving/ The final site that I am going to mention is the Yahoo auroral observing group. Here, about 250+ enthusiasts post messages on a forum, and discuss past shows, as well as potential shows – as the excitement builds. Recommendation I would not recommend relying on the news media to let you know when the northern lights can be seen (I've seen too many guarantees of a show with nothing happening). I have found that my best resources are from www.spacew.com, and comments from experienced aurora chasers on the forum on that same web site. I also refer a lot to the data on www.spaceweather.com and to all the links on that web site. And finally, do a lot of research. There's a lot more information available than what I have posted above that will help in you in your search for the northern lights. |
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